而且還不是我寫的,是我的Co-manager,我就補充一些註記好了:
今年自己的交易蓋棺結論
Trade
1 Nov 7, 3:46 am
zass17 acquires:
Kemba
Walker Cha - PG,SG
Markieff
Morris Pho - SF,PF,C
Twins acquires:
Kyrie
Irving Cle - PG,SG
Eric
Gordon NO - SG
Summary: A mutually beneficial trade initially
considering Gordon went down soon after the trade. Clear advantage favors
zass17 in the long run because of Walker’s knee injury and Morris’s March
slump. Observation of Twins’ FA move (heavily streaming on PF) helped us
discover his potential need.
摘要:考慮到狀態低迷的E Gordon在交易後不久就受了大傷 在當時那個時間點看起來,是一個互惠互利的交易。長期來說zass17則是明顯的受益,Walker的膝傷和Morris的整個三月的低迷狀態和Irving的火熱形成了強烈對比。球季剛開始時,因為觀察到TWINS 加球員的模式幾乎都集中於PF/C。察覺到他的潛在需求,是我認為這個交易能談成的重要因素。
Zass17隔年想法:Eric還是一整年打不穩定,用這兩個中前段球員去主換一個Irving,是有點小虧到。
Trade
2 Feb 13,
6:28
zass17 acquires:
Ben McLemore Sac - SG
tim2901932 acquires
P.J. Tucker Pho - SG,SF
Summary: A trade that originally intends to generate additional move and
$ turned us into bank heist victims. On Feb 10, Tucker and McLemore basically
had identical 30, 14 and 7 days average. We were intrigued to know if Coach
Karl would further unlock McLemore’s so called potential. It didn’t happen. Tucker
has excelled after the departure of both I. Thomas and G. Gragic, and became an
ultra-reliable source of 3PT, STL, REB with low TO and solid FT%. A true
multiple categories producers that can elevate a solid playoff team to another
level.
PS: Tim dropped Tucker for
P. George quickly and didn’t get to ride the tide. Please file your complains
to Paul
George (@Paul_George24) | Twitter. We have filed ours.
摘要:原本打算只是要利用交易規則,獲取額外的行動數和$獎勵,沒想到這筆交易把我們變成了銀行搶劫案的受害者。在2月10日,Tucker和McLemore基本上有著相同的30天,14天和7天的數據平均。我們同時也很好奇,George Karl教練是否能進一步開啟McLemore的所謂潛力。遺憾的是這並沒有發生。Tucker則是在I. Thomas和G.
Gragic離開後,變身成為3PT,STL,REB加上低TO和不傷FT%的超可靠的來源。我們錯失了一個能在多個項目貢獻的強援,Tucker在我看來
絕對有能力將一支堅強的季后賽等級球隊提升了到另一個層次。
PS:Tim聽到Paul George開始練習的新聞後一下子就把Tucker放生了,沒能騎上這股逆勢高升的潮流。你可以到Paul George (@Paul_George24) |
Twitter去抱怨一下。我們已經去過了
。
Zass17隔年想法:我們真的有去抱怨。
Trade
3 Feb 26, 4:28 am
zass17 acquires:
Marcus
Morris Pho - SF,PF
Twins acquires:
Adreian
Payne Min - PF
Summary: Another trade that intends to generate additional move and $ actually helped us in the
short term. He padded the stats during garbage time vs Spurs and was the player
of the game performance on Feb 28. Note that given the current injuries (Knight
& Dieng) both Morris and Payne can be valuable role players during playoff
weeks.
摘要:這個交易本來也只是為了拿到額外的行動數和$獎勵,不過短期內我們的確因為Marcus Morris受益了。2月28號Marcus Morris在與馬刺比賽的垃圾時間裡刷數據刷的好開心 還當上太陽單場比賽最佳球員。值得注意的是鑑於目前傷兵不斷(B. Knight和G. Dieng)Morris和Payne很可能在季后賽的星期中變成頗有價值的角色球員。
Zass17隔年想法:這個交易無感的很。果然心得就是要馬上記下來阿
Trade 4 Mar 6, 4:53 am
zass17 acquires:
John Wall Was - PG
Rudy Gay Sac - SF,PF
Nikola
Pekovic Min - C INJ
Ed Davis LAL - PF,C
yushi acquires:
Trevor
Ariza Hou - SG,SF
Timofey
Mozgov Cle - C
Kyrie
Irving Cle - PG,SG
Omer Asik NO - PF,C
Summary: This blockbuster trade reconstructed the strength and weakness for
both teams. Yushi desperately needs starting caliber centers after the loss of
R Anderson & J Sullinger. When a team’s most reliable center is Pekovic,
Asik and Mozgov should look like Dale Davis and Rik Smits (some Pacers
reference) to them.
Wall was in the
midst of a slump for weeks at the time of this trade. However, study has shown
that his performance is positively correlated with the presence of Beal. I
believed Beal’s return should bring the statistical correction, and this is one
of the main reasons we decided to push the bottom.
I really don’t
need numbers to evaluate the pros and cons between Rudy Gay and T Ariza. Ariza
decided not to play for the Lakers when he was given the choice; I decided not
to have him as a member of our team when I was given the choice. Period.
Retrospectively,
Yushi and zass17 both got what they wanted. Yushi successfully qualified for a
playoff spot, and we never lost another weekly match the rest of the regular
season. I am not sure if we could have gone further in the playoff with our
original team. However, overall I am quite satisfied with this trade.
摘要:這個重磅交易轉變了交易雙方各自的強弱項。Yushi在因傷病失去Ryan Anderson & Jared Sullinger後,迫切需要堪當大任的先發中鋒。當一支球隊裡 最可靠的中鋒名為 Nikola Pekovic,Omer Asik和Timofey Mozgov應該看起來像Dale Davis和Rik Smits吧(Pacers 粉懂的)。
在交易時 Wall已經經歷了數周的低迷了。然而高階數據表示,他的表現與Beal上場與否有著強烈的正相關性。我們相信Beal歸來應該會為Wall帶來統計數字的反彈,這也是我們決定接受交易的主要原因之一。
我個人是不需要數字來評價Rudy Gay和Trevor
Ariza去留之間的利弊。當Ariza有選擇的時候 他決定不為湖人打球; 當我有選擇的時候
我決定不把他作為我們團隊的一員。就是這麼簡單。
事後看來,Yushi和zass17均得到了他們想要的東西。Yushi成功搶下了一個季后賽席位,我們則是在常規賽季餘下的每週比賽 沒有再輸過任何一次。我不確定我們原來的隊伍 是否能在季後賽讓我們更進一步。不過總體來說,我對這交易感到滿意。
Zass17隔年想法:唯一可惜,主角Gay還有Irving都在季後賽時段受大傷。我們兩隊的升空之旅只完成50%
Trade
5 Mar 9, 5:44 am
Twins acquires:
Tony Snell Chi - SG,SF
zass17 acquires:
Arron
Afflalo Por - SG,SF
Summary: Zass17 and Twins exchanged two very
similar wing players. Both of them had massive opportunities and yet fairly low
usage. In conclusion, neither of them capitalized their opportunities. Note that
Snell had an advantage in weekly schedule beginning on March 9. This is
probably the reason why our proposal was accepted.
摘要:Zass17和Twins交換了兩個非常相似的側翼球員。他們都擁有大量的機會和上場時間,但相當低的使用率。結果,他們都沒有把握住這次的機會發光發熱。需要注意的是Snell在3月9日開始的這週 有賽程上的優勢,這大概就是我們的提案會被接受的原因吧。
Zass17隔年想法:至少有獎勵….
Trade
6 Mar 12, 4:47 am
zass17 acquires:
Markieff
Morris Pho - SF,PF,C
Kevin
Durant OKC - SF,PF INJ
tim2901932 acquires
Isaiah
Canaan Phi - PG
Rudy Gay Sac - SF,PF
Summary: It did not work out for us eventually, but
it was the correct move at that moment.
After numerous times of assessments, I know that
zass17 is still not truly a contender of championship. Durant had multiple
positive news and footage and Tim was running out of time in his playoff race.
Therefore we believed this could be an opportunity for us since we can afford
to wait as division leader. It was unfortunate for us and the NBA that Durant
is probably going to be an injury prone in the future because foot injury is
usually complicated. Retrospectively, Morris performed better than Gay in week
23 and Gay hasn’t really been so healthy to get the job done near the end of
this season either.
It is a trade I would not regret.
摘要:這個交易最終沒有達到我們預期的效果,但它在當時那一刻 仍無疑是正確的決定。
經過無數次的評估,我知道以Zass17基本盤
仍然稱不上是冠軍的有力爭奪者。Durant有數個復健良好的消息與練習錄像 Tim則是在季後賽追逐戰中漸漸沒有等待傷兵的餘裕。因為我們分區領先不少 能夠等待,我們認為這可能是一個機會,讓我們隊伍更上一層。不幸的是Durant後來全季報銷,對NBA來說影響可能更大 Durant之後的生涯很可能會繼續傷痛不斷,因為腳傷通常相當複雜。事後看來,Morris比Gay在第23週表現更好些 Gay則在接近賽季結束時不斷為傷病所累
。
這是一個我不會後悔的交易。
這筆交易後 Smooth Negotiator 成就獲得!
Zass17隔年想法:不升級就進季後賽等死而已,換進來KD真的有復出,就有機會一路衝高。我也不後悔。
Trade
7 Mar 12, 4:47 am
zass17 acquires:
Dante Exum Uta - PG
tim2901932 acquires
Nikola
Pekovic Min - C INJ
Summary: Do you know that Dante Exum’s NBA draft
comparison is Penny Hardaway?
Now you do.
摘要:你知道Dante Exum的NBA選秀模板是
一分錢Penny Hardaway嗎?
現在你知道了。
Zass17隔年想法:噗,哈哈哈。好比喻。隔了半年更好笑。
今年有最後悔沒接受的交易提案(或是任何接近close deal但沒成功的)?
Would it be better if we agreed to offer 10 moves & Ed Davis and
acquire Kevin Durant? I don’t have an answer and I am still thinking
today.
如果我們同意提供10 moves和 Ed Davis,來換 Durant會不會更好?我沒有答案,我到今天也還沒想出來。
Zass17隔年想法:我也不能。
今年最得意的FA、Waiver?
Jarrett Jack, December 19 – Top 30 level of
performance from December 19 to February 9. If we could have offered Jack in a
trade, he would have helped us more.
從12月19日至2月9日績效能排名前30名,。如果我們能在這段期間把他交易掉,他會幫助我們更多。
Zass17隔年想法:挖賽,前30名,真的假的?
Timofey Mozgov, January 8 – Solid starting caliber center in standard league for around half of
the season.
能用半個賽季的紮實先發中鋒。
Zass17隔年想法:這隻在TT獲得青睞前真的很補
Rajon Rondo, March 17
& March 28 – An unusual experience to pick up Rondo twice from FA.
Surprisingly he never missed any free throw in our team.
從FA加了Rondo兩次確實很不尋常。令人驚訝的是,他從來沒有在我們隊上錯失任何罰球。
Zass17隔年想法:沒有錯失罰球真的太神奇了
Steven Adams, March 17 –
Irony has left a bitter taste in our memory.
諷刺的劇本留下了苦澀的味道。。。。
Zass17隔年想法:小鬍子今年連球都沒得打了吧..
今年最後悔的被攔FA、Waiver?
Rudy Gobert, Donatas Motiejunas,
Hassan Whiteside, Khris Middleton, Kemba Walker, Nikola Mirotic, Jimmy
Bulter
Zass17隔年想法:Kemba當過Waiver? 應該是養不起吧? Gobert、Mirotic這兩隻都被B.G.撿走,真是太強了。Butler沒搶到真的有傷。
今年(如果想的起)得意的球員臨時調動(bench誰,上誰,短炒FA,逆轉勝)?
Sunday, February 8
Brandan Wright was switched to Amir Johnson and
the extra block from Amir tied that week.
Brandan Wright 下 Amir
Johnson 上 那多出來的一火鍋讓當周比數打平
Zass17隔年想法:沒印象了 T_T
今年誰(球員)最和我犯沖?
Paul George
Cost of adding Paul George: 10 $
+ 2 moves
Performance of Paul George:
0 Pt 0 Reb 0 Ast 0 Stl 0 Blk 0
3PT 0.000 FG% 0.000 FT% 0 TO
Zass17隔年想法:以投訴,沒回應,可以跟他的台灣代理人Yushi索賠嗎?
本季聯盟的Best Story?
WenPinCheng: His last draft pick (Rudy Gobert) was so much
better than his first pick (Andre Drummond).
WenPinCheng: 最後一輪球員(Rudy
Gobert)比第一輪球員(Andre Drummond)強很多 難得
Zass17隔年想法:但是還要看看誰接到最後一棒
tim2901932: He has the best draft selection in Z league 2014.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you did not make.
tim2901932: 大概是2014年Z盟選秀最成功的玩家
有時最好的交易 是沒有做成的那個
Zass17隔年想法:好苦澀
PnR: Reggie Jackson and Gorgui
Dieng were drafted and kept for almost the entire season. Enormous patience
delivers tremendous profit.
PnR: Reggie Jackson 和 Gorgui Dieng選進來後就留到了季末。巨大的耐心,培養了巨大的收益。
Zass17隔年想法:耐心的回報阿,讚
Freethrow99: Obsessed with small ball
Freethrow99: 小球重度患者
Zass17隔年想法:永遠的FT,終於拿到本盟冠軍
B.G: Number 1 contender AFTER
donating Pau Gasol & Nicolas Batum to the poor. His team should beat up
everyone, just like Griffin gave Justin Bieber a good pounding in Starbucks.
B.G: 在贈送了Pau Gasol與 Nicolas Batum之後,以陣容看來還是第一冠軍競爭者。他的球隊沒意外應該能打倒每一隊吧,就像Griffin在星巴克給Justin Bieber一頓粗飽一樣。
Zass17隔年想法:What-if界的冠軍哪
Crazy Coach: Crazy Coach loses
his insanity every time Anthony Davis pulled a muscle.
Crazy Coach: 瘋狂教頭每次Anthony Davis抽筋一下,精神都會更接近正常些
Zass17隔年想法:這種抽筋法我也要
Yushi: Pacers fan for life;
drafted 0 players from Pacers
Yushi: 台灣溜馬迷代表,選了0個溜馬球員
Zass17隔年想法:競標盟跟他抬價PG,他還是冷血的放過說…
WuMan_Returns: cowabunga~
WuMan_Returns: 卡哇邦嘎~
Zass17隔年想法:華麗的連續大三元
Dolphin: 東西賣的好貴
Zass17隔年想法:噗
C.I.A: James Harden may be the
MVP of the 2014 season, but his production cannot cover the loss of empty
second and third round pick.
C.I.A: James Harden可能是2014年賽季的MVP,但他的產出不能彌補第二和第三輪選秀
失敗的損失。
Zass17隔年想法:齁齁齁,是我CO-Mang說的
YesSir_Z: The healthiest elite
player on the team is D Wade. Wow.
YesSir_Z: 隊裡最健康的精英球員是Wade。哇。
Zass17隔年想法:今年隊長還是熱愛Wade吧?
BuzzerBeater: 康雷、鷹俠、林仲秋、涂鴻欽. 和我們交易吧
Zass17隔年想法:去場外發言區
NBA_Jam: NBA 牌果醬 爆發力十足 動不動爆炸 這是中國製果醬嗎?
Zass17隔年想法:事隔半年,已經不知梗在哪了…
Twins: Playoff race victim at
the last moment.
Twins:季后賽資格爭奪戰最後一刻的受害人。
Zass17隔年想法:我也忘了多精彩
Daydream: Daydream 作為溫泉店招牌 的確很合適
Zass17隔年想法:好標題
Zass17:
“這個珍瓏變幻百端,因人而施,愛財者因貪失誤,易怒者由憤壞事。” -- 天龍八部
之前從來沒有試過H2H,所有的H2H對我來說是一個全新的規則。
最大的不同是,“每一場比賽產生的數據價值可以是完全不同的”
Roto裡,一個失誤不論是在十一月發生還是三月發生,對球隊的影響完全相同。H2H里,玩家可能完全不在乎一個十一月的失誤,卻會因為一個三月的失誤 整季成果毀於一旦。
有些周(如明星賽周末)比賽數目少,一場比賽的成績 對一周勝負的決定 比重則會加大
總之 數據的價值,取決於自己與對手的配置,與賽程。
“最強的球隊,就是最好的球隊”這一個我之前深信不疑的法則,在很大程度上被顛覆了。
瘋狂教頭說的好在Zass盟,除了冠軍外,其他所有的名次都是一樣的
我們冠軍基本盤因Durant加盟而開啟,也因Durant隕落而結束。某個程度上來說,希望的火焰在季後賽開始前就已經熄滅了,加上對面得到首輪等級Jimmy Bulter助拳,一來一去相差很大。第一週的各種計算以及操作,更多是出於對對手的尊重,和企及Z盟所代表H2H最高水平標準,放棄不是一個選擇。
不得不說,第二十三周,PnR只要有人上場,表現幾乎都是超水準。
Reggie Jackson三場平均接近大三元,低失誤還外加高命中率。
G. Dieng 獨佔上場時間後,一人能在中鋒數據外的兩項防守數據上大大加碼
Zaza Pachulia化身全能中鋒,單場最佳表現可達到14 分11籃板 7助攻 5抄截 1火鍋 !!
Duncan整週罰球12次只失手了一球,根據Binominal Distribution,這事件發生的幾率只有1110.732110.2681=9.53%
。。。
主力公牛三隻角Jimmy Bulter Pau Gasol Nikola Mirotic,表現也是如預期的可圈可點。
雖然對手仍有Nicolas Batum休息兩場,Bradley
Beal休息一場等不利因素,但我方Tyreke Evans,Al
Jefferson也掛著傷病紅十字,Michael Kidd-Gilchrist,Andre Iguodala在中盤又因傷退場。考慮賽程安排,對方主力空閒日(星期一,星期四,星期六),場次多於我方。廟算下這種組合打合理估計十次我們要輸九次,而贏的那一次,我方奪取的項目也必是在極細微的差距下決定。能夠在終盤收官時4:5,確定在助攻,籃板,三分獲勝。罰球命中率小數點三位些微領先,而得分以22分落後。能走到這一步,一點一滴地把獲勝機率由一成提升到50/50,除了和Zass腦力激蕩無數次的沙盤模擬,最重要的還是那不在計劃中的幸運,助我們到達離目的還有一步之遙之處。
晚上8:50 分 Markieff Morris Steven Adams 全放上追得分 還是撤下Steven Adams保全罰球命中率?
假使球員得分是正態分布的話 Markieff
Morris 平均得分15.5 得分標準差 1.33
不放 Adams 的話 他必須得到22分或以上我們才能晉級 那機率約是 PZ>22-15.51.33= 0.001%
看起來不放上Adams 勝算不大啊
一直到第四節, 得分已經追回 統計學似乎眷顧著我們 Adams因為Westbrook霸著球 仍然沒有罰球
比賽愈到後段 我甚至希望Adams拿到球乾脆被抄走吧 這場怎麼打了快40分鐘還不下去
3:26 Steven Adams misses the first free throw
3:26 Steven Adams misses the second free throw
3:07 Enes Kanter enters game for Steven
Adams
我們的球季 就在這裡結束了
對了 想知道Markieff
Morris 最後的得分多少嗎 ?
24分 剛剛好一人便剛好彌補我們所處的劣勢還多兩分
輸贏成敗 又爭由人算
你心目中的14-15
FB 最大雷(球員)?
Carmelo Anthony (NY - SF,PF), Kevin Durant (OKC - SF,PF)
你心目中的14-15 FB MVP(球員)?
Stephen Curry, 以前的咖哩雞腿變咖哩大腿了
你心目中的14-15 FB ROY(球員)?
A. Wiggins
Zass17隔年想法:還是小小Overrated
你心目中的14-15 FB MIP(球員)?
Draymon Green
Zass17隔年想法:進前三順位啦!
你心目中的14-15 FB 最佳FA/Waiver (球員)?
Rudy Gobert
你心目中的14-15 FB 最被低估球員?
Danny Green
Andre Iguodala
他們打的很好 但很難想像有人明年會在六輪以前選他們
Zass17隔年想法:Danny今年升超多,儼然有全隊第2,3人FU
心目中的14-15 FB 最佳教頭?
Zass can answer this. I did not
go through the whole season.
Zass17隔年想法:我忘了….
心目中的14-15 FB最理想5人(C, F, G)?
Chris
Paul, James Harden, LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis
如果願意分享的話,2014-2015 的第一輪選秀人選?
“LeBron James, no matter what”
Zass17隔年想法:我誠意的相信這是煙
最後二問,你覺得四魔王選GM分區制度好不好玩? 季後賽應不應該早一周開始?
有沒有可能 季後賽每一輪不是一周而是兩周呢 這樣暴冷的機率也許會減少 對實力強的隊伍也多些保障
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